SPC AC 230601

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0101 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   NEW MEXICO...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms with hail, damaging gusts and a tornado or two
   are possible across portions of New Mexico and southern Colorado
   today into tonight.

   An elongated western US trough will drift eastward today as the
   primary vort max is forecast to lift northeastward across the Great
   Basin into the northern Rockies through tonight. A secondary
   shortwave perturbation will round the base of the trough and
   approach coastal southern CA. Despite the fragmented nature of the
   upper trough, mid-level meridional flow will remain fairly strong
   from portions of northern Mexico to the Canadian border. Ascent
   associated with both perturbations and the strong flow crossing the
   higher terrain will aid in developing a lee cyclone across eastern
   MT. A trailing lee trough will connect to a second, much weaker,
   cyclone over southern NM and northern Senora. This will support
   modest northward return of unseasonably robust moisture, and
   subsequent destabilization across NM and the southern High Plains
   favorable for strong to severe storms.

   ...New Mexico and southern Colorado...
   Remnant showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are likely to be
   ongoing early this morning across the higher terrain of northern NM
   and southern CO. The impact this convection and cloud debris will
   have on later convective development is somewhat uncertain.
   Regardless, mid-level ascent, persistent upslope flow and continued
   advection of 50-60 F surface dewpoints should result in adequate
   destabilization (MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) by early afternoon across
   southern CO and northern NM. Subsequent development and
   intensification of multiple rounds of thunderstorms are likely, with
   organization into supercells and clusters expected, owing to
   elongated and fairly straight hodographs. Hail will be the primary
   risk, with isolated strong gusts possible as well. However, some
   veering in the low-levels, aided by terrain-induced backing of the
   flow and moist low-levels could support a low-probability tornado
   risk with the strongest supercells.

   Farther south more robust diurnal heating is expected to develop
   where clearing should be more prominent. Afternoon MLCAPE of
   1000-2000 J/kg is likely to exist amidst the strong wind fields.
   While low-level flow is expected to remain more veered with the
   weaker surface pressure response, straight hodographs and effective
   shear greater than 40 kt will still favor splitting supercells.
   Large hail (some 2+ inch) is possible. The deeper mixing, especially
   with eastward extent in southern NM and far west TX, may also
   support some damaging/severe gust potential if storms remain higher
   based.

   ...High Plains...
   A more isolated severe risk could develop within the foothills and
   adjacent high Plains of southeastern CO where modest buoyancy,
   increasingly strong flow aloft, and steeper low-level lapse rates
   will exist. Convection emanating from the higher terrain could
   persist into the drier and more deeply mixed air mass beginning mid
   to late afternoon, enhancing downdrafts and damaging gust potential.
   The degree of organization/intensity of these storms is uncertain,
   but 5% wind probabilities have been added.

   ..Lyons/Thornton.. 10/23/2026

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z