SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
Day 1 Convective Outlook
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 140100 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHWEST OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible tonight from parts of north-central Illinois into southwest Ohio. Severe gusts and hail will be possible in parts of the central Plains. A few severe gusts may also occur in parts of the Intermountain West. ...Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys/Southern Great Lakes... The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level anticyclonic flow pattern over the central U.S., with west-northwesterly flow located over the eastern U.S. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is analyzed from northeast Missouri to northern Kentucky. Surface dewpoints along and to the south of the front are in the 70s and low 80s F, which is contributing a west-northwest to east-southeast axis of strong instability. The RAP has MLCAPE along this axis in the 3000 to 5000 J/kg range. To the north of the instability axis, short-term model forecasts move a subtle shortwave trough east-southeastward through the Midwest tonight. Large-scale ascent associated with the trough coupled with increasing low-level flow will likely result in the development of a line of strong storms. This is forecast to take place late this evening, with the line moving southeastward from north-central Illinois across central Indiana and into southwest Ohio. Severe wind gusts will be possible with this line segment. ...Central Plains... Southwesterly mid-level flow is currently in place over much of the southwestern and central U.S. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough appears to be moving into the central High Plains. Ahead of this feature, the RAP has an axis of moderate instability located from northern and western Kansas into northeastern Colorado, along which MLCAPE is estimated in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. Scattered thunderstorms were ongoing near the instability axis early this evening in eastern Colorado with another cluster in central Kansas. Increasing low-level flow from this evening into the overnight period will likely sustain convective development. Hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible with the stronger cells. ...Intermountain West... On water vapor imagery, multiple shortwave troughs appear to be moving through the Intermountain West. Ahead of these features, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across much of Nevada and Utah. The RAP is currently analyzing an axis of instability from southeast Nevada into north-central Utah along which MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 750 to 1000 J/kg range. Near the instability axis, the RAP also has low to mid-level lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8.5 C/km range. This thermodynamic environment should support an isolated potential for severe wind gusts this evening. ..Broyles.. 08/14/2026 NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Updated: Fri Aug 14 01:00:39 UTC 2026 (
Day 2 Convective Outlook
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 131730 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST...OHIO VALLEY...AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from the central High Plains into parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic on Friday. ...East-central Plains into the Midwest... Isolated severe potential will be possible with early morning elevated storms within a warm advection regime. These storms will generally diminish with time given the weakening low-level jet. An MCV will likely emanate from the central High Plains and impact the Mid-Missouri Valley during the afternoon. This MCV will track along the periphery of the upper ridge that will be building into the Plains/Midwest. Model guidance varies with regard to how organized this MCV and associated surface reflection will be. Moderate to strong instability is expected to develop near the effective surface boundary by the afternoon despite some expected cloud cover. The timing of convective development is quite uncertain. The HRRR suggests strong enough convergence at the surface that storms will form by late afternoon. Many other CAMs suggests development after 00Z as the low-level jet increases again. Storms that do develop will likely have supercell characteristics initially, but weak flow above 500 mb will tend to lead to outflow dominance and clustering. Should confidence in late afternoon development increase, there may be greater severe potential than currently expected. ...Ohio Valley into parts of the Mid-Atlantic... Convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians early Friday morning. Model guidance generally suggests that an MCV feature will be associated with this activity, though the strength of the MCV varies. Regardless of how strong the MCV is, there is a consistent signal for cloud cover limiting destabilization/low-level lapse rates across much of these regions. Stronger mid-level winds will also be displaced from the larger buoyancy values in the Carolinas. Given the timing of the MCV, it appears likely that wind damage potential will be spatially limited. There will be a small corridor of stronger heating in southeast Virginia/northeast North Carolina which could see locally stronger storms. ...CO Front Range into the central High Plains... Moist east/southeasterly surface winds into the higher terrain will again promote scattered storm development within the Front Range. Deep-layer shear will not be overly strong, but a few storms will be capable of isolated hail and severe winds. Additional storms are expected in the hotter, well-mixed environment to the south and east. These storms will be capable of severe winds. There will be some increase in the low-level jet during the evening. The strongest 850 mb winds will be focused farther east, however. If a cluster can form, it may persist farther eastward into later in the evening. ..Wendt.. 08/13/2026 NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Updated: Thu Aug 13 17:30:32 UTC 2026 (
Day 3 Convective Outlook
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 131937 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible on Saturday from the central High Plains eastward into parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, southern/central Appalachians, and Carolinas. ...Central High Plains eastward into parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley... Two MCV features are forecast with one within the central Plains and another near southern Lake Michigan early on Saturday. These MCVs will interact with a moist airmass north of surface boundary. While the MCV moving into the Mid-Missouri Valley be moving into areas that will have been affected by the lead MCV. Destabilization during the afternoon in Iowa/Illinois is not certain, but a few strong to marginally severe storms could develop. Depending on the evolution/track of the lead MCV, destabilization within parts of the Ohio Valley appear more probable. The main questions continue to be early precipitation/cloud cover and where the MCV will track relative to the greater buoyancy. A corridor of greater severe potential could develop in parts of eastern Indiana into Ohio, though confidence is still low at this time. ...Colorado Front Range... A moist airmass will remain near the higher terrain. Scattered convection is again possible from the Front Range into parts of the adjacent Plains. Deep-layer shear will still not be very strong. While convection may be somewhat disorganized, the strongest storms could produce hail and isolated severe winds. ...Southern Appalachians... Given the moist airmass, scattered storm development within the higher terrain is possible. Modest northwesterly flow aloft may allow a few strong to marginally severe storms to move off of the terrain and pose a threat of wind damage. ..Wendt.. 08/13/2026 NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Updated: Thu Aug 13 19:37:50 UTC 2026 (
