Severe Weather

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook map
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 020023

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0723 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026

   Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts will be possible this
   evening into tonight along the central Gulf Coast.

   ...Discussion...
   Thunderstorm activity will continue across portions of the central
   Gulf Coast this evening. While the more favorably unstable air mass
   remains mostly offshore, occasional strong cells/clusters may track
   inland with potential for damaging winds as large scale ascent
   increasing through the evening/overnight period. Closer to the front
   offshore, a few transient supercells and a tornado may be possible.
   Overall, the threat inland remains isolated and a Marginal risk was
   maintained this evening to account for this potential.

   ..Thornton.. 05/02/2026

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Updated:  Sat May 2 00:23:03 UTC 2026 (

Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook map
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 011712

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1212 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026

   Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTHERN
   GEORGIA...EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL
   FLORIDA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to severe storms are possible across southern Georgia into
   northern/central Florida Saturday morning into early evening.

   ...Synopsis...
   A large upper trough will be present across much of the eastern U.S.
   on Saturday. The mid-level jet will be intensifying through the
   period, primarily north of a surface cold front. South of the cold
   front, upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be in place.

   ...Southern Georgia into central Florida...
   Convection will be ongoing early Saturday morning. The intensity of
   this early activity is not certain, though thunderstorms will be in
   a highly sheared (55-65 kt effective) environment. An initial warm
   layer around 700 mb may limit overall intensity before modest
   cooling aloft occurs mid/late morning. At least filtered heating is
   expected to occur south of the cold front. MLCAPE by the afternoon
   of 1000-1500 J/kg is possible. With shear parallel to the cold
   front, there is potential for the front to undercut some of the
   convection. However, one or more organizing linear segments/clusters
   could still occur along/south of the boundary. Wind damage would
   likely be the primary hazard with this activity. Large hail is still
   a possibility, but would be somewhat conditional on a discrete storm
   mode. The tornado threat remains less certain. The low-level jet
   will be strongest in the morning before lifting north and east
   through the day. This would mean diurnal destabilization would be
   out of phase with the strongest low-level wind field. While the
   overall threat for a tornado or two appears low, there is a narrow
   zone in North Florida where marginally stronger low-level shear and
   boundary-layer destabilization may favorably align mid/late morning.
   Uncertainty in the position of the boundary/low-level thermodynamics
   is too high for an increase in tornado probabilities.

   ..Wendt.. 05/01/2026

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Updated:  Fri May 1 17:12:06 UTC 2026 ( 
[

Day 3 Convective Outlook

SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook map
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 011925

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0225 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026

   Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
   MID-MISSOURI AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of
   northern/central Missouri and central Illinois on Sunday.

   ...Synopsis...
   Broad cyclonic flow aloft across much of the central/eastern CONUS
   will continue on Sunday. Within the broader cyclone, shortwave
   troughs will rotate into the northern Plains and lower
   Missouri/mid-Mississippi Valleys. A surface high will continue to
   shift southeastward allowing some southerly return flow into the
   southern Plains/Mid-South into parts of Missouri/Illinois. As the
   northern Plains trough intensifies, a weak surface boundary will
   move southeastward into the Midwest.

   ...Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys...
   Moisture return ahead of the weak surface front is not expected to
   be significant. The initial return flow pattern may allow low 50s F
   dewpoints to reach parts of Missouri/Illinois. Despite the limited
   moisture, temperatures aloft will be quite cold (nearing -20 C at
   500 mb). At least a narrow zone of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE appears
   possible. Storm coverage may remain isolated, but there is
   reasonable confidence in development given surface convergence and
   aid from a passing shortwave trough by late afternoon. Where storms
   can develop, 40-50 kt of effective shear, a well-mixed boundary
   layer, and the steep mid-level lapse rates would support a risk for
   large hail and severe wind gusts. The most notable change with this
   outlook is to shift probabilities southward given the latest
   guidance trends.

   ..Wendt.. 05/01/2026

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Updated:  Fri May 1 19:25:48 UTC 2026 (

Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook map
Day 5
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook map
Day 6
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook map
Day 7
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook map
Day 8
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook map

Day 1Tornado Outlook

Day 1 tornado probability map
Updated:  Sat May 2 00:23:03 UTC 2026 ( |  | )

Day 1 Wind Outlook

Day 1 wind probability map
Updated:  Sat May 2 00:23:03 UTC 2026 
Next outlook: 0600Z

Day 1 Hail Outlook

Day 1 hail probability map
Updated:  Sat May 2 00:23:03 UTC 2026 ( |  | )
Next outlook scheduled by: 0600Z