SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
Day 1 Convective Outlook
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 110030 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT IN CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large hail (some 2+ inches) and numerous severe/damaging wind gusts (isolated 75+ mph) are expected this evening across parts of central Texas. ...Central Texas to the Texas Coast and deep South Texas... As of 00:15z, volumetric radar data indicated an HP supercell gradually evolving into a larger-scale bowing complex over McCulloch, San Saba, and Mason counties with a separate supercell complex over Coryell county, which recently produced hail up to four inches in diameter. Surface observations and objective analysis indicate the presence of a warm and moist inflow air mass with estimated MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. While deep-layer shear isn't particularly strong, the observed supercell structures indicate sufficient shear exists to support organized storm modes given the degree of instability. Current thinking is that the separate thunderstorm regimes mentioned above will eventually merge along a common cold pool, with a broader-scale MCS accelerating south-southeast through the remainder of central TX this evening. Corridors of damaging winds in excess of 75 mph appear likely within the core of the bowing complex. The very large hail (> 2") threat is expected to persist for the next hour or two with the dominant supercell structures. Hail sizes should diminish with time as convection transitions to more of an outflow dominant system. The wind damage threat is expected to become more isolated late tonight as the convective system approaches the TX Coast and deep South Texas owing to gradual cooling and stabilization of the boundary layer. ..Mead.. 05/11/2026 NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Updated: Mon May 11 00:30:00 UTC 2026 (
Day 2 Convective Outlook
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 101720 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts and hail are possible Monday afternoon across parts of the Southeast. ... Overview ... As a western midlevel ridge amplifies, a midlevel shortwave trough will slowly progress southeast across eastern Texas into Louisiana on Monday. At the same time, a surface cold front will slowly sag south across the Southeast. Deep-layer ascent associated with the midlevel vorticity maximum will interact with the trailing portion of a surface front allowing the development of a surface trough/low that will move east along the front. ... Southeast US ... Along and ahead of the surface front, temperatures will warm into the upper-70Fs to low-80Fs with dewpoint temperatures rising into the upper-60Fs to low-70Fs. Convergence along the front will result in scattered thunderstorm development, perhaps by late morning. Strong cloud-layer shear, tall, skinny buoyancy profiles, and precipitable water values around 1.75 inches will support a marginally severe wind threat. Depending on the degree of heating of the airmass ahead of the front, a marginal hail risk may also develop. The most likely area for a concentration of wind and hail occurrence will be where the surface front intersects any inland moving sea breeze across southern South Carolina, Georgia, and northern Florida. Farther west across southeast Louisiana, convective coverage is less certain. Although scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the sagging front, additional thunderstorms may develop in response to the deep-layer ascent with the midlevel vorticity maximum and inverted trough/surface low. However, there is significant disagreement within the 20260510/12Z HREF guidance as to the coverage of any convection. Given the presence of a midlevel vorticity maximum and a surface boundary, will lean toward the wetter solutions. A similar kinematic and thermodynamic environment will exist here as farther east, supporting primarily a marginal wind threat. ..Marsh.. 05/10/2026 NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Updated: Sun May 10 17:20:48 UTC 2026 (
Day 3 Convective Outlook
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 101930 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with strong wind gusts and hail will be possible on Tuesday from parts of southeast Kansas northeast into southern Wisconsin. ... Overview ... The midlevel pattern will amplify further on Tuesday as a midlevel low and associated trough move southeast over the Upper Great Lakes in response to a building ridge upstream. As the midlevel flow amplifies, a jet streak will redevelop on the upshear side of the trough, resulting in strong vertical shear across the Central US. At the surface, a low will quickly drop southeast out of Canada, across Wisconsin, into Lower Michigan. To the west/southwest of this low, a cold front will quickly push south and east. ... Southeast Kansas northeast into Southern Wisconsin ... Ahead of the aforementioned surface cold front, southerly winds on the west side of a surface anticyclone will support northward moisture transport across the central US. The 20260510/12Z guidance suite shows considerable variance in the depth and quality of the moisture return and in turn, convective coverage. Low level convergence along the front will be greatest the closest to the surface low. Despite surface dewpoints in the upper-40Fs to perhaps low-50Fs, a couple of thunderstorms are likely to develop across southern Wisconsin. Convergence along the front should decrease with southwest extent with an increasing EML/cap in the same direction. Thus, despite better low level moisture, and in turn buoyancy, across the Central Plains, confidence in thunderstorm development is low. That said, the 20260510/12Z Hi-Res NAM shows thunderstorm development all along the front from southeast Kansas into Wisconsin. The overall kinematic environment will be favorable for at least a few severe wind reports where ever thunderstorms develop, and thus the Level 1/Marginal Risk has been expanded to incorporate this potential. ... Central and South Florida ... A post frontal airmass should be in place across the area on Tuesday, with northerly surface winds advecting in a slightly drier airmass. Despite that, a myriad of potential surface boundaries (including both Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes) will be around during the afternoon to serve as potential thunderstorm initiation mechanisms. Although effective layer shear will be around 30 to perhaps 40 knots, the degree of instability may limit the overall wind threat. ... Interior Pacific Northwest ... A few thunderstorms may develop during the late afternoon and overnight across portions of Oregon and Washington within a belt of strong southerly flow ahead of an approaching midlevel trough to the west and the building ridge to the east. Although low level moisture should remain scant, sufficient midlevel moisture should combine with large-scale ascent and steep lapse rates to support a few thunderstorms. Fast storm motions and steep low-to-midlevel lapse rates may support a few severe thunderstorm wind gusts. However, the nature of this threat is still too low to warrant unconditional severe probabilities. ..Marsh.. 05/10/2026 NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Updated: Sun May 10 19:30:56 UTC 2026 (
