SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
Day 1 Convective Outlook
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 251248 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms should develop today across parts of the southern/central Plains, with large hail and severe/damaging winds possible. A more focused corridor of tornado potential should exist this afternoon/evening across northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas, where a strong tornado may occur. ...Southern/Central Plains into the Ozarks... Severe potential today across the southern/central Plains will be heavily influenced by ongoing convection this morning extending from western KS into northeast OK. These thunderstorms are largely tied to modest warm/moist advection at low levels, evidenced by recent VWPs across this area (KDDC/KVNX/KINX) and the 12Z observed OUN sounding. Latest surface analysis indicates a weak surface low is present across southeast CO, with a front extending eastward from this low across KS. A secondary boundary/warm front was also analyzed along/near the KS/OK border, with generally 70s surface dewpoints and greater instability present to its south. The thunderstorms across western KS have recently strengthened, with evidence of a leading supercell and some attempt at clustering just to its west with a possible/developing MCV circulation. This activity may pose at least an isolated hail/wind threat through the morning as it tracks eastward across southern KS. But, it may tend to remain somewhat elevated to the north of the warm front. Accordingly, the overall severe threat with this convection is uncertain. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 1307 for more details on the short-term severe threat across KS. The net effect of the morning convection may be to reinforce the boundary across northern OK/southern KS. Most guidance continues to suggest that a narrow corridor of moderate to strong instability will exist this afternoon from southeast CO (to the east of the weak surface low) east-southeastward into southern KS/northern OK. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated across this area later today as a weak mid-level shortwave trough ejects eastward over the central High Plains. With strong deep-layer shear expected, initial supercells should pose a threat for large hail and severe gusts. But, convective mode will probably tend to become mixed/messy quickly, as thunderstorms interact/merge with each other. Low-level shear is forecast to markedly increase near the surface boundary across southern KS/northern OK through the afternoon and evening as a southerly low-level jet strengthens. Elongated/curved hodographs suggest a threat for a few tornadoes will exist, especially with any thunderstorms that can remain at least semi-discrete. And given the enhanced effective SRH near the boundary, a strong tornado appears possible if a supercell mode can be maintained. Higher-based convection should develop farther south into the southern High Plains this afternoon, where a more deeply mixed airmass suggests a greater threat for scattered severe/damaging winds. But, some hail could also occur with the stronger cores. This activity should tend to cluster and spread eastward across northwest TX, the OK/TX Panhandles, and eventually into western OK this evening, while continuing to pose mainly a severe wind threat before eventually weakening. ...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and New York... 50-60 kt mid-level westerly flow will spread eastward across the Midwest/OH Valley into the central Appalachians through this evening as an upper-level trough moves eastward over the Great Lakes. A weak surface low should also develop eastward over the lower Great Lakes today, with a cold front advancing east-southeastward across the Midwest/OH Valley. Surface dewpoints generally range in the 50s to low 60s ahead of the front this morning. Coupled with poor mid lapse rates aloft and ongoing cloudiness, instability that develops by this afternoon may tend to remain somewhat limited. Even so, strong deep-layer shear associated with the mid-level jet will aid in updraft organization, with a mix of multicell clusters and possibly some marginal supercell structures developing this afternoon along/ahead of the front. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds both appear possible, and a tornado or two may also occur across parts of OH into western/central PA and western NY where slightly stronger low-level flow and related shear should exist. Confidence in stronger instability and a greater severe risk remains too low for higher hail/wind probabilities with this update. ...Utah into Wyoming and Montana... Similar to yesterday, fairly high-based showers and thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across the eastern Great Basin. With a well-mixed boundary layer forecast with daytime heating, the main threat with most of this activity should be isolated severe winds with outflow-dominant convection as it spreads from UT into WY this afternoon and evening. Some chance for occasional hail may also exist farther north in southeast ID, WY, and parts of MT, where cooler temperatures aloft, stronger mid-level flow/deep-layer shear, and pockets of greater instability should support more robust convection. ..Gleason/Jewell.. 06/25/2026 NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
Updated: Thu Jun 25 12:48:26 UTC 2026 (
Day 2 Convective Outlook
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 250535 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible across the High Plains, southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma, and into the Ohio Valley on Friday. Additional severe storms capable of damaging wind and isolated large hail will also be possible across portions of the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the Northwest CONUS on Friday as ridging builds across the Plains. A broad surface low will exist from northwest Texas into Missouri along a frontal zone. A lee cyclone will develop across the northern High Plains as the primary trough starts to eject over the northern Rockies. This will result in strengthening southerly flow across the Plains and destabilization from eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and perhaps far southeast Montana. ...High Plains... Weak to moderate destabilization is forecast across the High Plains as dewpoints increase into the 60s during the afternoon. Slight height rises may limit storm coverage somewhat, but as storms form across the terrain Friday afternoon/evening, the environment downstream should support these storms continuing. Some storm organization and transient rotating updrafts are possible from northeast Colorado into eastern Wyoming, but only modest effective shear (around 25 knots) should limit overall storm intensity somewhat. Nonetheless, some large hail and severe wind threat is possible. ...Central/southern Plains to the Ohio Valley... Storms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across Missouri and into southern Illinois and Indiana. These storms should weaken as the move east of the greatest instability by late morning. In the wake of this activity, moderate to strong destabilization is expected. This should prove sufficient for isolated to scattered storm development along the remnant frontal zone/outflow boundary during the afternoon/evening. Most guidance shows 35 to 40 knot mid-level flow remaining across the region which should be sufficient for supercell organization. In addition, a vorticity rich environment will likely be present in the wake of morning storms. If sufficient destabilization can occur within this airmass, some tornado threat may exist. Most notably, the NAM shows a more volatile scenario with a stronger mid-level shortwave trough and a more defined surface low moving along the boundary. This scenario appears to be a clear outlier among 00Z guidance. However, it does represent the ceiling of this potential scenario. While a marginal hail/wind/isolated tornado threat seems like the most likely scenario, guidance will be monitored closely for any hint of this more intense NAM solution. ...Northeast... A line of storms will move through the Northeast Friday morning. In the wake of these storms, some destabilization is expected ahead of a cold front moving through the area. There is some uncertainty about the degree of destabilization, but at least weak instability is shown by most guidance. A strong mid-level jet streak across the region (50+ knots) will provide long/straight hodographs. This will support the potential for isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts with the strongest storms. ..Bentley.. 06/25/2026 NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Updated: Thu Jun 25 05:35:08 UTC 2026 (
Day 3 Convective Outlook
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 250715 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are likely across portions of eastern Montana and western North Dakota on Saturday. More isolated strong to severe storms are possible from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to Virginia and the Carolinas. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, the leading edge of a larger mid-level shortwave trough will eject across the northern Plains. A surface lee cyclone will develop in this vicinity. Farther east, a weak surface low is forecast to move from the Ohio Valley to the East Coast, weakening through the period. ...Northern Plains... Low-level southerly flow will strengthen through the day Saturday within the warm sector of a lee cyclone across the Plains. This will lead to destabilization and moderate to strong instability by mid-afternoon Saturday. Storms will initially form across parts of central and eastern Montana, and will likely grow upscale into a MCS as it moves northeast through the evening. Additionally, there is some supercell threat east of this activity during the afternoon/evening. This is a more conditional threat, but the environment would support tornadoes and very large hail if more isolated storms form. For now, the 15% probabilities cover the most likely region for a severe wind threat from a MCS, with some area farther east included for the conditional supercell threat. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Carolinas and Virginia... Moderate to strong instability is forecast along and south of a frontal zone from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Carolinas on Saturday afternoon. Forecast soundings show weak shear across this zone, but at least moderately steep mid-level lase rates and moderate instability may support some damaging winds Saturday afternoon/evening. Slightly greater damaging wind potential may exist across Virginia into North Carolina along an eastward advancing cold front where moderate to strong instability is forecast beneath a mid-level shortwave trough and associated slightly stronger flow. ..Bentley.. 06/25/2026 NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Updated: Thu Jun 25 07:15:53 UTC 2026 (
