SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
Day 1 Convective Outlook
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 020023 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0723 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts will be possible this evening into tonight along the central Gulf Coast. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm activity will continue across portions of the central Gulf Coast this evening. While the more favorably unstable air mass remains mostly offshore, occasional strong cells/clusters may track inland with potential for damaging winds as large scale ascent increasing through the evening/overnight period. Closer to the front offshore, a few transient supercells and a tornado may be possible. Overall, the threat inland remains isolated and a Marginal risk was maintained this evening to account for this potential. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2026 NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Updated: Sat May 2 00:23:03 UTC 2026 (
Day 2 Convective Outlook
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 011712 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA...EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible across southern Georgia into northern/central Florida Saturday morning into early evening. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will be present across much of the eastern U.S. on Saturday. The mid-level jet will be intensifying through the period, primarily north of a surface cold front. South of the cold front, upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be in place. ...Southern Georgia into central Florida... Convection will be ongoing early Saturday morning. The intensity of this early activity is not certain, though thunderstorms will be in a highly sheared (55-65 kt effective) environment. An initial warm layer around 700 mb may limit overall intensity before modest cooling aloft occurs mid/late morning. At least filtered heating is expected to occur south of the cold front. MLCAPE by the afternoon of 1000-1500 J/kg is possible. With shear parallel to the cold front, there is potential for the front to undercut some of the convection. However, one or more organizing linear segments/clusters could still occur along/south of the boundary. Wind damage would likely be the primary hazard with this activity. Large hail is still a possibility, but would be somewhat conditional on a discrete storm mode. The tornado threat remains less certain. The low-level jet will be strongest in the morning before lifting north and east through the day. This would mean diurnal destabilization would be out of phase with the strongest low-level wind field. While the overall threat for a tornado or two appears low, there is a narrow zone in North Florida where marginally stronger low-level shear and boundary-layer destabilization may favorably align mid/late morning. Uncertainty in the position of the boundary/low-level thermodynamics is too high for an increase in tornado probabilities. ..Wendt.. 05/01/2026 NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Updated: Fri May 1 17:12:06 UTC 2026 (
Day 3 Convective Outlook
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 011925 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MID-MISSOURI AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of northern/central Missouri and central Illinois on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow aloft across much of the central/eastern CONUS will continue on Sunday. Within the broader cyclone, shortwave troughs will rotate into the northern Plains and lower Missouri/mid-Mississippi Valleys. A surface high will continue to shift southeastward allowing some southerly return flow into the southern Plains/Mid-South into parts of Missouri/Illinois. As the northern Plains trough intensifies, a weak surface boundary will move southeastward into the Midwest. ...Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys... Moisture return ahead of the weak surface front is not expected to be significant. The initial return flow pattern may allow low 50s F dewpoints to reach parts of Missouri/Illinois. Despite the limited moisture, temperatures aloft will be quite cold (nearing -20 C at 500 mb). At least a narrow zone of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. Storm coverage may remain isolated, but there is reasonable confidence in development given surface convergence and aid from a passing shortwave trough by late afternoon. Where storms can develop, 40-50 kt of effective shear, a well-mixed boundary layer, and the steep mid-level lapse rates would support a risk for large hail and severe wind gusts. The most notable change with this outlook is to shift probabilities southward given the latest guidance trends. ..Wendt.. 05/01/2026 NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Updated: Fri May 1 19:25:48 UTC 2026 (
