SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
Day 1 Convective Outlook
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 020527 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN GEORGIA...EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible across southern Georgia into northern/central Florida this morning into the early evening. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will bring enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft across the southeast into the Gulf Coast Saturday. A cold front extending across the northern Florida Peninsula into the Gulf will shift south and east through the afternoon, as a focus of severe thunderstorm development. Thunderstorm activity is expected at the beginning of the period, some of which perhaps may be strong. ...Southern Georgia into central Florida... Thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing at the start of the period early Saturday morning across the Gulf into the Florida Panhandle and southern Georgia. A few stronger transient supercells will be possible, mainly offshore south of the Florida coast where better instability will overlap increasing upper-level flow. Thunderstorm activity will increase in coverage inland and across southern Georgia into the eastern Florida Panhandle and northern Florida Peninsula through the morning into the afternoon. Moderately unstable and strongly sheared profiles across the region will support potential for damaging winds and large hail, especially with embedded supercells. Given storm motions parallel to the southwest to northeast oriented cold front, supercells will likely struggle to remain discrete. As the low-level jet becomes displaced to the north by late morning into the afternoon, mode may becoming increasingly more clustered/linear. This may reduce the hail potential through time. Before the low-level jet shifts northward, risk for a tornado will be possible across the northern peninsula near the front. There is a narrow zone in north Florida where marginally stronger low-level shear and boundary-layer destabilization may favorably align mid/late morning for a higher tornado risk. Overall, confidence is low in favorable overlap, with potential largely occurring outside of peak daytime heating and with the low-level jet beginning to shift northward. As mentioned, there is also concern about storm motions and lack of more discrete supercells. This leads to too much uncertainty in introducing higher tornado probabilities at this time. A Slight Risk was maintained across southern Georgia into the eastern Florida Panhandle and northern/central Florida for the main threats of damaging wind and large hail. ..Thornton/Lyons.. 05/02/2026 NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Updated: Sat May 2 05:27:25 UTC 2026 (
Day 2 Convective Outlook
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 020501 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of northern/central Missouri and central Illinois on Sunday. ...Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys... Moderate deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the region as a series of shortwave impulses migrate through an upper trough oriented over the Midwest and eastern U.S. Temperatures aloft will be quite cold (around -20 C at 500 mb), resulting in steep midlevel lapse rates across the Mid-MS Valley region. At the surface, boundary layer moisture will remain limited in the wake of a prior cold frontal passage, resulting in Gulf moisture remaining well offshore. Most guidance suggests dewpoints in the 50s are possible along a corridor ahead of a weak surface front. While low-level moisture will be limited, steep midlevel lapse rates will foster 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Model guidance remains unclear with regard to convective initiation, but heating into the 70s will allow for an uncapped environment. While deep-layer flow will mostly remain unidirectional, speed shear will support supercell wind profiles with 35+ effective shear magnitudes and elongated hodographs. While overall storm coverage may remain low, and the risk is conditional, if storms develop, isolated large hail and locally strong gusts will be possible during the afternoon and evening. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2026 NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Updated: Sat May 2 05:01:12 UTC 2026 (
Day 3 Convective Outlook
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 011925 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MID-MISSOURI AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of northern/central Missouri and central Illinois on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow aloft across much of the central/eastern CONUS will continue on Sunday. Within the broader cyclone, shortwave troughs will rotate into the northern Plains and lower Missouri/mid-Mississippi Valleys. A surface high will continue to shift southeastward allowing some southerly return flow into the southern Plains/Mid-South into parts of Missouri/Illinois. As the northern Plains trough intensifies, a weak surface boundary will move southeastward into the Midwest. ...Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys... Moisture return ahead of the weak surface front is not expected to be significant. The initial return flow pattern may allow low 50s F dewpoints to reach parts of Missouri/Illinois. Despite the limited moisture, temperatures aloft will be quite cold (nearing -20 C at 500 mb). At least a narrow zone of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible. Storm coverage may remain isolated, but there is reasonable confidence in development given surface convergence and aid from a passing shortwave trough by late afternoon. Where storms can develop, 40-50 kt of effective shear, a well-mixed boundary layer, and the steep mid-level lapse rates would support a risk for large hail and severe wind gusts. The most notable change with this outlook is to shift probabilities southward given the latest guidance trends. ..Wendt.. 05/01/2026 NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
Updated: Fri May 1 19:25:48 UTC 2026 (
