SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
Day 1 Convective Outlook
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 240606 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms are possible across the central High Plains today with a threat for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. More isolated severe storms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Ozarks to Mississippi, and across northern Utah. ...Synopsis... Current satellite imagery depicts upper ridging centered over northern Mexico, covering much of the Southeast and Texas. This imagery also shows an upper low centered near the ND/MN/Manitoba border intersection. These features are expected to remain largely in place throughout the day Wednesday, with a belt of moderate mid-level flow extending from the northern/central High Plains into mid MS Valley between these two features. Most guidance shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving within this westerly flow across the Dakotas to the Upper MS Valley. A convectively augmented vorticity maximum is also forecast to arc through the northern periphery of the Southwest upper ridging, moving across the western Great Basin during the afternoon before then continuing eastward across the central Rockies during the evening/overnight. Evolution of these features, in addition to continued eastward/southeastward progress of any overnight convective complexes, will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms from the Intermountain West to the MS Valley. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over a few areas within this larger region, including northern/central UT, the Upper MS Valley, and from the central/southern High Plains into AR/MS. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Low-level moisture will remain over the lower elevations of the southern and central High Plains on Wednesday, combining with strong heating and steep mid-level lapse rates to support the development of strong buoyancy by late afternoon. Thunderstorms are possible across the majority of the region, with the highest coverage anticipated from south-central/southeast WY into northeast/east-central CO, where buoyancy is maximized as well. Deep-layer shear will be quite strong within this corridor as well, with 0-6 km shear from 55 to 65 kt possible. These conditions support the potential for robust supercells capable of large to very large hail. Hail from 3" to 4" in diameter is possible. Notable low-level curvature of the hodograph could support a tornado or two in this region as well, although the weak winds around 700 mb could result in slow supercell motion and potential for more storm interactions. Eventual upscale growth into forward-propagating MCS capable of strong to severe gusts is probable. Lower storm coverage is anticipated farther south, with warmer temperatures and higher cloud bases suggesting a predominantly outflow-dominant storm mode. Strong to severe gusts will be the primary risk, although some isolated hail is possible as well. ...Great Basin... Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the region during the afternoon, as the convectively augmented vorticity maximum mentioned in the synopsis interacts with modest mid-level moisture and resulting buoyancy. A deeply-mixed sub-cloud layer will support potential thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, particularly across northern UT where higher thunderstorm coverage is anticipated. ...Upper Midwest... A modest surface low, attendant to the low-amplitude shortwave trough moving across the Dakotas to the Upper MS Valley, is forecast to shift eastward just ahead of the parent shortwave. Temperatures are forecast to warm into the 70s ahead this low, which should be sufficient for modest buoyancy given the low 60s dewpoints. The belt of stronger mid-level flow will also support moderate vertical shear (i.e. around 40 of 0-6 km shear) and the potential for more organized storm structures capable of large hail and damaging gusts. ...South-Central KS/OK/Arklatex into MS... Evolution of the thunderstorms ongoing across eastern CO will significantly influence the early-day severe storm potential across the region. Current expectation is for some remnant of whatever cluster develops to be over south-central KS/north-central OK at the start of the period, perhaps beginning to interact with the western extent of a zone of warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms extending from north-central OK into southern AR/northern LA. Low predictability limits forecast confidence, but some limited severe potential, both within the cluster and within the more cellular warm-air advection storms, could exist in the morning if this scenario materializes. The downstream airmass will be very moist, and is forecast to destabilize as temperatures climb into the low 80s. This could lead to a reintensification of the cluster and/or new development along its outflow. Deep-layer shear will be weak, but strong updrafts could result in enough water loading to produce a few strong gusts as the cluster continues southeastward. ...Southern MS/AL... Some guidance indicates the cluster currently moving across northern LA restrengthens as it moves through southern MS and southern AL later this morning/afternoon. Like the areas farther northwest, this region will be weakly sheared, but a few stronger water-loaded gusts are possible. ..Mosier/Chalmers.. 06/24/2026 NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
Updated: Wed Jun 24 06:06:52 UTC 2026 (
Day 2 Convective Outlook
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 240558 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE OZARKS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across portions of the High Plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind. Storms are also expected across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma into the Ozarks where large hail, severe winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough will move through the Great Lakes during the day on Thursday. A weak surface low will move across Ontario with a trailing cold front into the Ohio Valley. Farther west, several mid-level shortwave troughs will be embedded within the broader zonal flow across the Plains. The most prominant feature will be a mid-level shortwave trough that is forecast to move from eastern Colorado Thursday morning to the Ozarks by the evening. A lee surface cyclone is forecast in the Texas Panhandle vicinity. ...High Plains... Widespread convection/cloud cover is likely from northern Colorado into eastern Wyoming on Thursday morning. This will limit surface-based instability across the region for much of the day. Eventual destabilization is expected by late afternoon/early evening as the cloud cover clears. As a mid-level shortwave trough moves through Wyoming, expect storms to develop during the evening with some severe wind potential. The lack of strong heating has lessened hail and significant wind potential across this region. Therefore, the CIG1 area has been removed. Farther south, stronger heating/destabilization is expected which, combined with moderate mid-level flow, may support some supercell threat with weak upslope flow across southeast Kansas, and continuing east along the frontal boundary into the OK/TX Panhandles. ...Northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas into the Ozarks... A morning MCS is expected to move along/north of a frontal zone across Kansas during the morning on Thursday. In the wake of this morning MCS, strong destabilization is forecast with moderate mid-level flow aloft. Therefore, supercells are expected to develop on the remnant outflow/frontal zone Thursday afternoon and evening from southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma potentially into the Ozarks. Given storm motion that should be parallel to the boundary, the enhanced vorticity along this zone could result in a locally greater tornado threat. In addition, most guidance shows a strengthening low-level jet across Oklahoma and into southern Kansas. This may support a strong tornado threat, particularly during the evening. ...Eastern Ohio to southern New York... Weak to moderate instability is expected to develop across eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania Thursday morning with dewpoints in the mid 60s. Moderate to strong forcing on the leading edge of a compact mid-level jet streak should result in storm development along the front by mid-afternoon. Strong shear should assist in storm organization, but weak lapse rates may limit overall updraft strength. Due to the weak to moderate instability and strong shear, 5% wind probabilities are warranted. ..Bentley.. 06/24/2026 NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
Updated: Wed Jun 24 05:58:58 UTC 2026 (
Day 3 Convective Outlook
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 240721 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE OZARKS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible across the High Plains and across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma into southern Missouri and northern Arkansas on Friday. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level shortwave trough will move from the eastern Pacific into the Northwest CONUS on Friday with the trough continuing to deepen through the period. An elongated mid-level jet streak will stretch from the California coast to the northern Plains by 12Z Saturday. Surface low pressure will exist across the Inter-Mountain West as this trough amplifies and will eventually consolidate as a lee cyclone across the northern Plains by the end of the period. ...High Plains... Moderate to strong instability is forecast across the High Plains on Friday as a dryline develops along the lee trough. Ridging should limit overall convective coverage, but with 30 to 35 knots of mid-level flow, isolated supercells are possible with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma into the Ozarks... Strong instability is forecast along a frontal boundary that will exist from the OK/KS border into southern Missouri where dewpoints will be in the low to mid 70s. Upper-level forcing will be weak, with neutral to perhaps slightly rising heights. Therefore, the strong instability and forecast soundings showing an uncapped airmass near a frontal zone will support the potential for strong to severe storms Friday afternoon/evening. In addition, the low-level jet is forecast to strengthen Friday evening which may provide additional support for storm development, even if it doesn't occur during daytime heating. ..Bentley.. 06/24/2026 NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
Updated: Wed Jun 24 07:21:13 UTC 2026 (
